I've grown tired of predicting the Oscars verballing and having it go my way, and then being told if it's not in writing, then there's no proof. So, I'm jotting down my predictions and we'll see how this goes. In these predications I'm gonna write down who I think should win and who I think will win, because there is a difference. The Academy makes mistakes often enough and I want to distance myself from those mistakes. Here we go. (Also not giving detailed predictions for categories I don't have a solid grasp on and that most of you don't care about)
Best Picture
Let's start off big and go for the one everyone cares about.
Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse.
Should Win: Well I've already said Drive is the best movie of last year, but it got a major snub by not even being nominated. Out of the nominees I say The Artist.
Will Win: The Artist or I'll be completely stunned.
Best Actor
No Gosling again, so I don't think this category really sums up the best performances of last year.
Nominees: Demian Bichir - A Better Life, George Clooney - The Descendants, Jean Dujardin - The Artist, Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Brad Pitt - Moneyball.
Should Win: Gosling in Drive. He was also good in The Ides of March. Snubs aside, I'm not a big supporter of politcal wins, but Gary Oldman needs to round out that trophy case.
Will Win: Jean Dujardin
Best Actress
More of a powerhouse category this year than it's male counterpart.
Nominees: Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs, Viola Davis - The Help, Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn.
Should Win: Rooney Mara. Everybody was excellent, but this movie was made by her performance. Maybe it's my Fincher bias though.
Will Win: Viola Davis is my guess, but I won't be stunned by a Meryl Streep win (as if we ever are).
Supporting Actor
Stunned by Hill's nomination, but that speaks to Aaron Sorkin's writing ability I think (more on that later).
Nominees: Kenneth Branaugh - My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill - Moneyball, Nick Nolte - Warrior, Christopher Plummer - The Beginners, Max von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.
Should Win: Jonah Hill....Kidding, it's Plummer. I love everything he does (Star Trek VI and Sound of Music being the standouts in my mind).
Will Win: Plummer, he's won the Golden Globe already, better make it a sweep.
Supporting Actress
I always love seeing multiple actor noms from the same film, it speaks volumes about the quality of the film. I usually chalk it up to directing though.
Nominees: Berenice Bujo - The Artist, Jessica Chastain - The Help, Melissa MacCarthy - Bridesmaids, Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs, Octavia Spencer - The Help.
Should Win: Berenice Bujo. The movie is solid.
Will Win: Berenice Bujo, I'm predicting a big night for The Artist.
Directing
Three big names and two relative unknowns in this category.
Nominees: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist, Alexander Payne - The Descendants, Martin Scorsese - Hugo, Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris, Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life.
Should Win: Woody Allen or Terrence Malick. Both these films have the director's signature all over it.
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, again - big night for The Artist.
Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin is the king of writing. Everything he writes is so sharp, does anyone else stand a chance?
Nominees: The Descendants - Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, Hugo - John Logan, Moneyball - Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan.
Should Win: Sorkin and co. Although I really enjoy the writing in The Descendants.
Will Win: The Descendants. Script is solid and I just can't see Moneyball winning.
Original Screenplay
Pretty solid crew for this category, and I love the inclusion of Bridesmaids. Comedies never really get their due in award season so this nom makes me smile.
Nominees: The Artist - Michel Hazanavicius, Bridesmaids - Annie Mumulo, Kristen Wiig, Margin Call - J.C. Chandor, Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen, A Seperation - Ashgar Farhadi.
Should Win: Woody Allen no doubt. His trademark wit shows throughout this film, and it's his best film.
Will Win: Midnight in Paris. Can't see a silent film getting this win, sorry The Artist.
Best Animated Film
Kind of a down year and I hate the throw in nom for Kung Fu Panda 2.
Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico and Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango.
Should Win: Rango. This movie is sharp and full of adult humour.
Will Win: Rango
Cinematography
Hugely underrated category.
Nominees: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse
Should Win: Hugo
Will Win: Hugo
Quick Guesses
Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Sound Mixing: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Original Score: The Artist
Sound Editing: Hugo
Obviously there's some categories I didn't cover. Having not watched any of the short films, foreign films or documentaries I can't even guess what will win. And having no knowledge on make-up or costume design, I won't field a guess. That about does it, enjoy the Oscars. As always, leave some comments on what I did right or wrong.
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